A customer shops at a supermarket in Congjiang County, southwest China's Guizhou Province, March 9, 2024.File Photo: Xinhua
China's consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, rose by 0.3 percent year-on-year in May, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Wednesday, which indicates a steady recovery in domestic demand.The reading comes as Chinese consumer spending has maintained pace, laying the foundation for a strong recovery of the economy. Analysts believe that the recent rise in consumer spending points to a stronger rebound in the retail market.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.1 percent, a slight drop from a month earlier. The fall was smaller than the 0.2-percent average drop for the corresponding period in the past 10 years.
From January to May, China’s CPI has risen by 0.1 percent year-on-year. Core CPI excluding food and energy prices saw a moderate year-on-year increase of 0.6 percent. China’s retail market was largely stable in May, NBS statistician Dong Lijuan said.
“The 0.3-percent rise in CPI in May is a promising sign of growth, albeit at a moderate pace. This indicates a positive momentum for continued improvement in production, which will require continuous support from both policymakers and market participants,” Li Changan, a professor from the Academy of China Open Economy Studies at the University of International Business and Economics, told the Global Times on Wednesday.
A large-scale retail trade-in program was launched in March, aiming to promote renewal of industrial equipment and consumption of daily goods, which is expected to inject vitality into consumer spending this year, Li said.
Food prices were the main factors weighing down CPI in May. Prices of eggs, fruits and edible oil all dropped due to sufficient market supply, according to the NBS.
Meanwhile, the NBS said that the producer price index (PPI), the gauge of manufacturing sector inflation, fell by 1.4 percent in May, which narrowed considerably by 1.1 percentage points from April, mainly due to the rise in international commodity prices and the improvement of domestic market demand, Dong from the NBS said.
An improvement in China’s manufacturing industry was reflected in the PPI reading, as industrial production picked up on sustained overseas demand, Li said, adding that China’s massive manufacturing sector has improved steadily in recent months, amid consistent government policy support and improvement in overseas market demand.
The CPI is expected to experience a slow rebound over the coming months, NBS spokesperson Liu Aihua predicted, adding that as the weather gets warmer and market supply increases, food prices are expected to remain at a seasonal low. Trade-in policies are likely to boost demand for industrial goods, leading to stable prices with a slight increase. Service prices are also expected to keep rising, driven by the gradual recovery of services demand.
China has rolled out a good number of consumption stimulus programs, such as stimulating purchases of vehicles, boosting the trade-in of consumer goods and a large-scale industrial equipment renewal.
Analysts said that trade-in program would fuel consumption and open up a huge market worth trillions of yuan this year. They expect retail sales to grow by over 5 percent in 2024, helping the economy to navigate through rising headwinds and meet this year’s GDP growth target of about 5 percent.
国家统计局周三公布，中国5月份居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比上涨0.3%，表明国内需求稳步回升。这一数据表明，中国居民消费支出保持增长，为经济强劲复苏奠定了基础。
分析人士认为，近期消费支出上涨预示着零售市场出现更强劲的反弹。
从月度来看，居民消费价格下降0.1%，环比小幅下降，降幅小于过去10年同期0.2%的平均降幅。今年1至5月，中国CPI同比上涨0.1%。扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比温和上涨0.6%。国家统计局统计师董丽娟表示，5月份中国零售市场总体平稳。
“5月份CPI上涨0.3%，这是一个积极的增长迹象，尽管速度适中。这表明生产持续改善的积极势头，需要政策制定者和市场参与者的持续支持，”对外经济贸易大学中国开放经济研究院教授李长安周三对《环球时报》表示。李长安表示，3月份启动了一项大规模零售以旧换新计划，旨在促进工业设备更新和生活用品消费，预计这将为今年的消费支出注入活力。食品价格是5月份CPI下跌的主要因素。国家统计局表示，由于市场供应充足，鸡蛋、水果和食用油价格均有所下降。与此同时，国家统计局表示，衡量制造业通胀水平的生产者价格指数(PPI)5月份下降1.4%，比4月份大幅收窄1.1个百分点，主要原因是国际大宗商品价格上涨和国内市场需求改善，国家统计局董说。李长安表示，中国制造业的改善反映在PPI数据中，工业生产受持续的海外需求推动回升。他补充说，在政府持续的政策支持和海外市场需求改善的推动下，中国庞大的制造业近几个月稳步改善。国家统计局发言人刘爱华预测，未来几个月
CPI预计将缓慢反弹。他补充说，随着天气转暖和市场供应增加，食品价格预计将保持在季节性低位。以旧换新政策可能会刺激对工业品的需求，导致价格稳定并略有上涨。在服务需求逐渐恢复的推动下，服务价格也有望继续上涨。中国推出了许多刺激消费的计划，例如刺激汽车购买、促进消费品以旧换新和大规模工业设备更新。分析师表示，以旧换新计划将刺激消费，并在今年打开一个价值数万亿元的巨大市场。他们预计2024年零售额将增长5%以上，帮助经济克服不断上升的逆风，实现今年约5%的GDP增长目标。
