A shopping mall in downtown Shanghai displays the logo of the Shanghai 5.5 Shopping Festival to attract shoppers on April 27, 2024. Photo: Qi Xijia/GT
China's retail sales, an important reflection of consumer spending, beat analysts' forecasts to grow by 3.7 percent year-on-year in May. The encouraging figure underscores the resilience and dynamism of the world's second-largest economy, analysts said, forecasting an even more robust economic performance for the rest of the year amid targeted policies.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, retail sales reached 3.92 trillion yuan ($540.42 billion) last month, up 3.7 percent year-on-year, compared with growth of 2.3 percent year-on-year in April.
In the first five months of the year, retail sales grew by 4.1 percent to 19.52 trillion yuan, and online retail sales jumped by 12.4 percent to 5.77 trillion yuan, according to the NBS.
"The continuous recovery of the consumption sector so far this year underscores China's advantage of having an ultra-large market, and it is also a result of the continuous recovery of the economy's internal growth momentum and the release of consumer spending potential," NBS spokesperson Liu Aihua said at a press briefing on Monday.
In May, sales of goods for upgraded spending posted fast growth. Among businesses above the designated size, retail sales of sports and recreational articles grew by 20.2 percent year-on-year, cosmetics rose by 18.7 percent, commercial telecommunications equipment grew by 16.6 percent, and home appliances and audio-video equipment jumped by 12.9 percent year-on-year, NBS data showed.
Zhou Maohua, an economist at China Everbright Bank, told the Global Times on Monday that the accelerated recovery in consumption was underpinned by improving employment and income data, stronger consumer confidence, and increased willingness to spend due to low consumer prices amid a low interest rate environment.
"The holiday travel surge and a relatively low base from 2023 also contributed to the increase," Zhou said.
About 295 million domestic tourist trips were made during the five-day May Day holidays, up 7.6 percent year-on-year and a surge of 28.2 percent from the same period in 2019.
It is important to actively expand domestic demand and implement the action plan for large-scale equipment renewals and trade-ins of consumer goods. It is also imperative to create more consumption scenarios to better meet people's needs for diversified and high-quality consumption, according to the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee on April 30.
The better-than-expected retail figure in May revealed the strength, resilience and potential of the world's second-largest economy, which will generate growth both this year and in the longer term, Cao Heping, an economist at Peking University, told the Global Times on Monday.
As the pace of consumption potential picks up speed, the role of consumer spending as a main driver of China's economic recovery will be further strengthened, Cao said, noting that the vitality of new types of consumption and services will in turn boost the development of new quality productive forces.
The prolonged correction in the property market will constitute a drag on consumer spending, although the situation will gradually improve with the implementation of trade-in programs, more policies to support consumption and a further recovery in domestic demand, noted Zhou.
A continued recovery in consumption will further repair expectations, stimulate internal circulation and contribute to the realization of the full-year growth target, said Zhou.
Liu said that multiple positive factors will contribute to an accelerated recovery of the consumption sector. Recently, government agencies and provinces have implemented policies to expand domestic demand, especially specific measures to facilitate and encourage trade-ins of consumer goods, and this process will inject vitality into the market.
In addition, new types of consumption are growing rapidly and market supply continues to improve, Liu stated.
中国零售额是消费者支出的重要指标，5月份同比增长3.7%，超出分析师的预期。分析师表示，这一令人鼓舞的数字凸显了世界第二大经济体的韧性和活力，并预测在有针对性的政策下，今年剩余时间的经济表现将更加强劲。
根据国家统计局周一公布的数据，上个月零售额达到3.92万亿元人民币（5404.2亿美元），同比增长3.7%，而4月份同比增长2.3%。
国家统计局数据显示，今年前五个月，零售额增长4.1%至19.52万亿元，网上零售额增长12.4%至5.77万亿元。
国家统计局发言人刘爱华周一在新闻发布会上表示：“今年以来，消费行业的持续复苏凸显了中国拥有超大市场的优势，也是经济内部增长势头持续恢复和消费者支出潜力释放的结果。
5月份，用于升级支出的商品销售快速增长。国家统计局数据显示，规模以上企业中，体育休闲用品零售额同比增长20.2%，化妆品零售额增长18.7%，商用电信设备增长16.6%，家电、音像设备同比增长12.9%。
中国光大银行经济学家周茂华周一对《环球时报》表示，就业和收入数据改善、消费者信心增强以及低利率环境下低消费价格导致的消费意愿增加支撑了消费加速复苏。“假日旅游激增和2023年相对较低的基数也促成了增长，”周茂华表示。
五一假期期间，国内游客出游约2.95亿人次，同比增长7.6%，较2019年同期激增28.2%。
积极扩大内需，实施大规模设备更新换新、以旧换新行动计划。中共中央政治局4月30日召开会议指出，要创造更多消费场景，更好地满足人民群众对多元化、高质量消费的需求。
北京大学经济学家曹和平周一对《环球时报》表示，5月份好于预期的零售数据揭示了世界第二大经济体的实力、韧性和潜力，这将在今年和长期内实现增长。
曹说，随着消费潜力的加快，消费支出作为中国经济复苏主要驱动力的作用将进一步加强，并指出新型消费和服务的活力将反过来推动新型优质生产力的发展。
楼市长期调整将拖累消费者支出，但随着实施，情况将逐渐好转周指出，以旧换新计划、更多支持消费的政策以及内需进一步复苏。
周茂华表示，消费持续复苏将进一步修复预期，刺激内循环，有助于实现全年增长目标。
刘爱华也表示，多重利好因素将有助于消费部门加速复苏。最近，政府机构和省份实施了扩大内需的政策，特别是促进和鼓励以旧换新的具体措施，这一过程将为市场注入活力。
此外，新型消费正在快速增长，市场供应持续改善。
