Workers assemble new-energy vehicles in Chery's assembly workshop in Wuhu city, East China's Anhui Province, on May 23, 2024. In recent years, Wuhu has prioritized this industry in its green transformation and industrial upgrading, drawing more than 300 companies across industries. Photo: VCG
Industrial profits in China returned to positive territory in April, while gains over the first four months of 2024 remained steady as policies taken to support the economy showed an effect, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Monday.
The figures add to other important economic indicators in April that showed a moderate improvement from March, highlighting a continuous recovery of the world's second-largest economy.
Analysts said that the Chinese economy will gain pace in the second quarter, with GDP expected to grow about 5.5 percent, an increase from 5.3 percent in the first quarter, as stimulus measures kick in. They also expect more proactive macro policies during the remainder of the year.
In April, profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size rose 4.0 percent year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 3.5 percent decline in March, as pro-growth policies took effect and market demand picked up, Yu Weining, an official from the NBS, said on Monday.
Industrial profits of these companies rose 4.3 percent in the first four months, unchanged from the first quarter and maintaining steady growth, said Yu.
From January to April, more than 70 percent of all industries' profits rose year-on-year.
"The improvement of industrial profits in April reflects the recovery of market demand, macro policy support and the low base effect," Zhou Maohua, an economist at China Everbright Bank, told the Global Times on Monday.
Supportive macro policies to reduce burdens on the manufacturing industry and promote industry upgrading contributed to the overall improvement of the manufacturing sector, Zhou said.
The effects of large-scale equipment upgrades are emerging, contributing to the rapid growth of equipment makers' profits. From January to April, their profits increased by 16.3 percent year-on-year, outpacing the overall industrial profit growth rate by 12.0 percentage points as the largest contributor to industrial profit growth, the NBS said.
From January to April, the profits of consumer goods makers rose 12.0 percent year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points faster than that in the first quarter, due to improved market demand and better export situation.
The steady recovery and growth of industrial enterprises' profits are key indicators of the thriving manufacturing industry in China, instilling optimism for continued growth in the sector, Cong Yi, a professor at the Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, told the Global Times on Monday.
The industrial profits added to a series of encouraging economic indicators in April, with a steady improvement of industrial conditions, exports, employment and prices, paving the way for accelerated economic growth in the second quarter.
"The optimistic view is that GDP growth will reach 5-5.5 percent in the second quarter," Cong said.
The second quarter is a critical time for GDP growth. Large-scale equipment renewals and consumer product trade-in policies will be key drivers of GDP expansion in this period, Cong said.
Lian Ping, president of the China Chief Economist Forum, told the Global Times on Monday that second-quarter GDP growth will be about 5.5 percent and full-year growth will hit about 5.3 percent, due to the more proactive macro policies.
Fiscal policy support is moving in the right direction and is positive, including the issuance of 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) in ultra-long special treasury bonds and increasing support for real estate, Lian said.
China on Friday issued this year's second batch of these bonds totaling 40 billion yuan with an interest rate of 2.49 percent.
The reserve requirement ratio may be reduced further, along with lower market interest rates in the second quarter, Lian added.
国家统计局 (NBS) 周一宣布，中国 4 月份工业利润恢复正增长，而 2024 年前四个月的增幅保持稳定，因为支持经济的政策已见成效。这些数据加上 4 月份其他重要经济指标较 3 月份略有改善，凸显出世界第二大经济体的持续复苏。
分析师表示，随着刺激措施的实施，中国经济将在第二季度加速发展，预计 GDP 增长约 5.5%，高于第一季度的 5.3%。他们还预计，今年剩余时间将出台更多积极的宏观政策。国家统计局官员余伟宁周一表示，4 月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 4.0%，较 3 月份 3.5% 的降幅有显着改善，因为促增长政策开始见效，市场需求回暖。余伟宁表示，这些企业的工业利润在前四个月增长了 4.3%，与第一季度持平，保持了稳定增长。
1-4月，全国七成以上工业利润同比增长。中国光大银行经济学家周茂华周一对《环球时报》表示：“4月份工业利润回升，既有市场需求回暖、宏观政策支持，也有低基数效应。”周茂华表示，宏观政策支持制造业减负、促进产业升级，带动制造业整体回暖。大规模装备升级效应显现，装备制造业利润快速增长。
国家统计局称，1-4月，装备制造业利润同比增长16.3%，高出工业利润增速12.0个百分点，成为工业利润增长的最大贡献者。1-4月，受市场需求回暖、出口形势好转等影响，消费品制造业利润同比增长12.0%，比一季度加快1.1个百分点。天津财经大学教授丛毅周一对《环球时报》表示，工业企业利润的稳步恢复和增长是中国制造业蓬勃发展的关键指标，为该行业持续增长注入了乐观情绪。
4月份，工业利润和一系列令人鼓舞的经济指标一起，工业状况、出口、就业和价格稳步改善，为第二季度经济加速增长铺平了道路。丛毅说：“乐观的看法是，第二季度GDP增长将达到5-5.5%。”第二季度是GDP增长的关键时期。丛毅说，大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策将成为这一时期GDP扩张的主要驱动力。
中国首席经济学家论坛会长连平周一对《环球时报》表示，由于宏观政策更加积极，第二季度GDP增长将在5.5%左右，全年增长将达到5.3%左右。连建军表示，财政政策支持正在朝着正确的方向发展，而且是积极的，包括发行 1 万亿元人民币（1380 亿美元）超长期特别国债，并加大对房地产的支持。中国上周五发行了今年第二批此类债券，总额为 400 亿元人民币，利率为 2.49%。连建军补充说，第二季度，存款准备金率可能会进一步降低，市场利率也可能下降。
