Illustration: Xia Qing/GT
While external forces have complicated relations among China, Japan and South Korea, the new challenges facing regional economic development have also spurred them to seek new avenues for cooperation in the current global political and economic landscape. This has been a key factor in the increasing signs of warming trilateral cooperation.
The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Japan Business Federation and the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade plan to co-host a trilateral business summit later this month in Seoul, the Yonhap News Agency reported on Monday.
The gathering has been held since 2009 with the goal of expanding Northeast Asian economic cooperation and exchanges. Most recently, the event was held in 2019 in Chengdu, capital of Southwest China's Sichuan Province.
Although the resumption of the gathering has not been officially confirmed, the eagerness of South Korea to advance trilateral cooperation is palpable. However, the future of trilateral cooperation will ultimately depend on the determination of Japan and South Korea to expand their cooperation and their ability to resist pressure from the US.
There is no question that China, Japan and South Korea possess the necessary foundation for economic and trade cooperation. Enhancing economic cooperation among the three countries is not only essential for regional development, but will also be crucial in promoting peace and prosperity in East Asia and globally. However, it is geopolitical factors, rather than economic considerations, that have impeded their collaboration.
As a result of the recent "decoupling" push by the US, Japan and South Korea, as key Asian allies of the US, have aligned their stance with the US on various issues, including taking a tough approach toward China in areas such as supply chains, science and technology. However, this misjudgment has had a significant impact on their own economies and trade.
For instance, South Korea's exports decreased 7.4 percent year-on-year in 2023, and it also recorded a trade deficit of $18 billion with China in 2023, its first such bilateral shortfall with China in 31 years, according to media reports.
Facing growing economic pressure and risks from following the US "decoupling" push, Japan and South Korea appear to be reassessing the significance of their relationships with China and are more inclined to enhance communication with China.
However, to achieve effective trilateral communication and cooperation, Japan and South Korea need not only to demonstrate sincerity in improving relations, but more importantly, the three parties need to find innovative ways to collaborate amid the US push for "decoupling" and "breaking chains," as failure to do so will result in consequences for all parties involved.
Enhancing mutual trust and promoting cooperation can only be achieved through the establishment of more frequent dialogue and communication mechanisms. In order to resist US pressure, China, Japan and South Korea could lessen their reliance on a single external market by enhancing cooperation within a multilateral framework. One way to achieve this is by expediting negotiations for the China-Japan-South Korea free trade agreement to broaden collaboration in trade, investment, technology exchanges and environmental protection. Additionally, cooperation could be bolstered within the ASEAN plus China, Japan and South Korea mechanism to promote the growth of the entire region.
In terms of mitigating risks, China, Japan and South Korea could focus on diversifying their supply chains by identifying alternative sources and improving the connectivity of their internal supply chains.
Additionally, they can address external pressures through policy coordination and information sharing, while also fostering cultural and talent exchanges to seek mutually beneficial solutions that uphold their respective national interests.
Moreover, the three can strengthen cooperation in some non-sensitive or non-strategic areas, such as environmental protection, climate change, renewable energy and public health.
Only by working together can the three countries achieve a mutually beneficial outcome. There is no alternative. Despite the challenges, it is crucial to resist the pressure by the US as a way to promote cooperation and avoid losses by the three parties. As East Asia remains the most vital engine of the global economy, the way in which these three countries collaborate will significantly influence global development.
在外部力量使中日韩关系复杂化的同时，面对区域经济发展的新挑战，这三国在当前全球政治和经济格局下寻求新的合作途径。这是中日韩三方合作日益暖化迹象的关键因素。
据韩联社报道，韩国商工会、日本经济团体联合会和中国国际贸易促进委员会计划于本月晚些时候在首尔共同举办三方商业峰会。自2009年以来，该峰会旨在扩大东北亚经济合作与交流。最近一次峰会于2019年在中国西南部的四川省省会成都举办。
尽管正式确认会议是否恢复尚未确定，但韩国加强三方合作的意愿是明显的。然而，未来的三方合作将最终取决于日本和韩国扩大合作的决心以及他们抵制美国压力的能力。
毫无疑问，中国、日本和韩国拥有进行经济和贸易合作的必要基础。加强这三国之间的经济合作不仅对于区域发展至关重要，而且对于促进东亚和全球的和平与繁荣也至关重要。然而，阻碍它们合作的是地缘政治因素，而不是经济考量。
由于美国最近推动的“脱钩”政策，作为美国的重要亚洲盟友，日本和韩国在各种问题上都与美国保持一致，包括在供应链、科技等领域对中国采取强硬立场。然而，这种错误判断对他们自己的经济和贸易产生了重大影响。
例如，据媒体报道，韩国的出口在2023年同比下降了7.4%，并且在2023年与中国出现了180亿美元的贸易逆差，这是31年来首次出现与中国的双边逆差。
面对来自美国“脱钩”政策的经济压力和风险的增长，日本和韩国似乎正在重新评估他们与中国的关系的重要性，并更倾向于加强与中国的沟通。
然而，要实现有效的三方沟通和合作，日本和韩国不仅需要展现改善关系的诚意，更重要的是，三方需要在美国推动“脱钩”和“断链”之际找到创新合作方式，否则将会对所有相关各方产生后果。
加强相互信任和促进合作只能通过建立更频繁的对话和沟通机制来实现。为了抵制美国的压力，中国、日本和韩国可以通过加强多边框架内的合作来减少对单一外部市场的依赖。其中一种方法是加快中国-日本-韩国自由贸易协定的谈判，以扩大在贸易、投资、技术交流和环境保护等领域的合作。此外，还可以加强在东盟加中国、日本和韩国的机制内的合作，促进整个地区的增长。
在减轻风险方面，中国、日本和韩国可以集中精力多样化他们的供应链，确定替代来源，并提高内部供应链的连通性。
此外，他们可以通过政策协调和信息共享来应对外部压力，同时促进文化和人才交流，寻求符合各自国家利益的互利解决方案。
此外，三国可以加强在一些非敏感或非战略领域的合作，如环境保护、气候变化、可再生能源和公共卫生等。
只有通过共同努力，中日韩才能实现互利共赢的结果。没有其他选择。尽管面临挑战，但抵制美国的压力是促进合作、避免三方损失的关键。由于东亚仍然是全球经济最重要的引擎，中日韩之间的合作方式将极大地影响全球发展。
