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China's FX reserves decline within controllable range, underpinned by strong economic fundamentals: expert 专家:中国经济的强劲基本面,为外汇储备稳定提供了支撑

Release time:2024-05-09 16:42 Click volume:325498

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China's foreign exchange (forex) reserves totaled $3.201 trillion as of the end of April, down by $44.8 billion, or 1.38 percent, from the end of March, according to data released on Tuesday by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE).

 

The largely stable results, announced as some Asian countries posted the largest declines in their forex reserves in months, underscored the general stability of China's forex reserves, which are supported by the strong fundamentals of the Chinese economy and the resilience of its recovery.

 

In February and March, China's forex reserves continued to rise for two consecutive months, with the end-March figure totaling $3.2457 trillion.

 

The SAFE said that the economy has a solid foundation, multiple advantages, strong resilience and vast potential, adding that these traits are conducive to keeping the scale of forex reserves generally stable.

 

Amid changes in macroeconomic data of major economies and varying expectations on different countries' monetary policies, the US Dollar Index rallied in April and global financial asset prices fell.

 

The SAFE attributed the drop in the scale of the country's forex reserves to the combined effects of currency translation and changes in asset prices.

 

Experts said that the drop in the reserves in April was moderate, and its prospects remain upbeat due to China's solid economic fundamentals, effective policy regulation and the resilience of the yuan.

 

"April foreign exchange reserves data was in part dragged down by a strong dollar performance in the period, but the adjustment was within a controllable range, while the overall data stabilized at levels above $3.2 trillion," Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomist at China Everbright Bank, told the Global Times on Tuesday.

 

Despite the uncertain prospects of overseas assets and price fluctuations of global financial assets, the outlook for China's forex reserves remains steady with positive factors amassing, Zhou said. She predicted that the resilient economic recovery will continue to support a reserve level of more than $3 trillion in the coming months.

 

A resilient performance in foreign trade and the country's attractiveness to foreign capital seeking gains are factors offering support, said Zhou.

 

As multiple Asian currencies including the Japanese yen, the South Korean won and Indian rupee continue to depreciate against the US dollar, mainly due to the US Federal Reserve's policy, some countries have had to slash their dollar holdings to shore up their weakened currencies.

 

South Korea's foreign exchange reserves dropped in April by the biggest amount in 19 months as the country's central bank intervened to curb weakness in the won, Reuters reported on Tuesday.

 

However, underpinned by China's strong economic recovery, the yuan maintained a stable rate against the US dollar and even strengthened by a notch during the past week, alleviating the pressure for the People's Bank of China, the central bank, to intervene.

 

The central parity rate of the yuan weakened 8 pips to 7.1002 against the US dollar on Tuesday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The yuan's exchange rate has been largely unchanged year-to-date.

 

The Chinese economy got off to a good start in 2024, with first-quarter GDP exceeding estimates to grow at 5.3 percent year-on-year.

 

The country also posted brisk tourism trips, spending data and box-office revenue during the just-ended five-day May Day holidays, reflecting growing momentum in the country's economic recovery.

 

中国国家外汇管理局(State Administration of Foreign Exchange, SAFE)最新数据显示,截至20244月底,中国的外汇储备总额为3.201万亿美元,较3月底下降了448亿美元,下降幅度为1.38%。尽管在一些亚洲国家外汇储备出现数月来的最大跌幅,中国的外汇储备仍表现出总体稳定性,这得益于中国经济的强劲基本面和复苏的韧性。

 

SAFE指出,尽管全球金融资产价格下跌,美元指数在4月上涨,但中国经济的坚实基础、多重优势、强大的韧性和巨大潜力有助于保持外汇储备的总体稳定。专家表示,尽管外部资产前景不确定并且全球金融资产价格波动,中国的外汇储备前景保持乐观,得益于坚实的经济基础、有效的政策调控和人民币的稳定。

 

中国光大银行宏观经济学家周茂华表示,4月外汇储备的数据部分受到美元表现强劲的影响,但调整幅度在可控范围内,总体数据在3.2万亿美元以上稳定。她预计,由于经济复苏的韧性,外汇储备将在未来几个月继续维持在3万亿美元以上。

 

与此同时,多个亚洲国家的货币如日元、韩元和印度卢比对美元的贬值主要是由于美联储的政策,这迫使一些国家削减美元储备以支撑本币。例如,据路透社报道,韩国在4月份的外汇储备下降幅度为19个月来最大,因为该国中央银行干预以抑制韩元的疲软。

 

然而,在中国强劲的经济复苏支撑下,人民币对美元保持稳定,过去一周甚至有所增强,这减轻了中国人民银行的干预压力。52日,中国外汇交易中心发布的中间价数据显示,人民币对美元汇率微弱下调8点,至7.1002

 

中国2024年第一季度经济数据显示,GDP同比增长5.3%,超过预期。此外,刚刚结束的五一假期期间,旅游、消费和票房数据显示出中国经济复苏的增长势头。这些数据再次证明了中国经济的强劲基本面,为外汇储备的稳定提供了支撑。


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