China-made electric vehicles will make up more than a quarter of the EV sales in Europe this year, with the country’s share increasing by over 5% from a year earlier, according to a new policy analysis.
About 19.5% of battery-powered EVs sold in the EU last year were from China, with close to a third of the sales in France and Spain constituting EVs shipped from the Asian country, the European Federation for Transport and Environment (T&E) reported in a paper shared Wednesday.
The share of made-in-China vehicles in the region is expected to rise to just over 25% in 2024, according to the T&E research, as Chinese brands such as BYD ramp up their global expansion.
While most EVs sold in the EU are from Western brands such as Tesla, which manufactures and ships EVs from China, Chinese brands alone are set to account for 11% of the region’s market in 2024. That share could reach 20% by 2027, T&E predicted.
The findings come as the European Commission probes subsidies given to electric vehicle makers in China to determine if they unfairly undercut local companies. Non-Chinese brands that ship from China, such as Tesla and BMW, could be included in the ongoing subsidy investigation.
According to Tu Le, founder of Sino Auto Insights, incentives put in place in China in the early 2010s led to a surge in startups and increased battery cell capacity in the country, paving the way for affordable EVs.
“The EU and the US are so far behind because they don’t have quality EVs at affordable prices because the legacy automakers have only really recently focused on designing & engineering them,” he added.
T&E suggested it would take raising EV tariffs to at least 25%, from the current 10%, for “medium” electric cars such as sedans and SUVs from China to become more expensive than their EU equivalents, though compact SUVs and “larger cars” would remain slightly cheaper.
However, the policy group said this would also require Europe to become more self-sufficient in battery cell production for the domestic EV industry.
“The conundrum they see themselves in is that they can’t build affordable (and profitable) EVs without Chinese batteries because the Chinese are so far ahead of both the EU & US on the mineral mining, refining and manufacturing sides,” said Sino Auto Insights’ Le.
In response to policy risks associated with shipping made-in-China EVs to Europe, China-based manufacturers such as Tesla and BYD have ramped up manufacturing efforts in the continent. Tesla is seeking to expand its assembly plant in Germany, while BYD plans to build a factory in Hungary.
“The aim [of tariffs] should be to localise EV supply chains in Europe while accelerating the EV push, in order to bring the full economic and climate benefits of the transition,” T&E said in their report.
根据一项新的政策分析，今年中国制造的电动汽车将占欧洲电动汽车销量的四分之一以上，其份额同比增长超过5%。
欧洲运输与环境联合会 (T&E) 周三发布的报告称，去年在欧盟销售的电池驱动电动汽车中，约有 19.5% 来自中国，在法国和西班牙销售的电动汽车中，近三分之一来自亚洲国家。T&E 研究显示，随着比亚迪等中国品牌加大全球扩张力度，到2024年，中国制造汽车在欧洲的份额将升至25%以上。
特斯拉等西方品牌也在中国制造和运输电动汽车，而在欧洲销售的大多数电动汽车都来自这些西方品牌，这些西方品牌也在中国制造和运输电动汽车。虽然如此，但到 2024 年，中国品牌就将占该地区市场的 11%。T&E预测，到2027年，这一比例可能达到20%。
尽管在欧盟销售的大多数电动汽车都来自特斯拉等西方品牌，该公司在中国制造和运输电动汽车，但到 2024 年，仅中国品牌就将占据该地区市场的 11%。T&E 表示，到 2027 年，这一份额预计可能会达到 20%。
与此同时，欧盟委员会正在调查中国电动汽车制造商接受的补贴，以确定它们对当地公司造成不良竞争影响。从中国发货的非中国品牌，如特斯拉和宝马，都可能会被纳入正在进行的补贴调查。
据中国汽车洞察（Sino Auto Insights）创始人涂乐介绍，2010年代初中国实施的激励措施，初创企业激增，并增加中国的电池产，为经济低价的电动汽车铺平了未来发展的道路。“欧洲和美国远远落后，因为他们没有价格实惠的优质电动汽车，这是因为传统汽车制造商最近才真正开始设计和制造电动汽车，”他补充道。
T&E表示，需要将电动汽车关税从目前的10%提高到至少25%，才能让中国的轿车和SUV等“中型”电动汽车的价格比欧洲同类产品更高。但现在，这种小型SUV和“大型汽车”仍更加便宜一些。然而，该政策小组表示，这还要求欧洲在国内电动汽车行业的电池生产方面更加自给自足。“他们面临的难题是，如果没有中国电池，他们就无法制造价格实惠（且有利可图）的电动汽车，因为中国在矿产开采、精炼和制造方面远远领先于欧盟和美国，”涂乐说。
由于中国制造的电动汽车运往欧洲销售具有一定的政策风险，为了应对这一风险，在中国制造和生产的特斯拉和比亚迪等汽车品牌加大了在欧洲制造和发展电动汽车的努力。特斯拉正在寻求扩大其在德国的组装厂，而比亚迪则计划在匈牙利创建一家工厂。
T&E 在报告中表示：“关税的目标应该是使欧洲电动汽车供应链本地化，同时加速电动汽车的推广，以便充分实现转型的经济和气候效益。”
