China will remain the largest growth engine for the world economy in spite of its slowdown, the Asian Development Bank said.
“China is obviously going to still be important for some time to come. They still account for nearly half of GDP in Asia Pacific,” ADB’s chief economist Albert Park said in a press conference for the bank’s Asian Development Outlook report.
“Although growth is moderating, and we are expecting it to continue moderating in the coming years… it’s likely to contribute the most growth of any economy in the world to global growth,” said Park.
ADB forecasts China to post annual GDP growth of 4.8% in 2024, lower than the government's target of “around 5%.” China's economy expanded 5.2% in 2023, matching the official target of around 5%.
Even with slower growth, ADB data estimated China will account for 46% of growth in developing Asia in 2024-2025.
China currently accounts for 18% and 48% of global and Asian GDP, respectively, based on purchasing power parities exchange rates, a metric used by the ADB, World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Additionally, growth in advanced economies is expected to slow this year, with ADB forecasting U.S. GDP growth to dip to 1.9% from last year’s 2.5%, and Japan’s to grow 0.6% compared to 1.9% in 2023.
The bank in its report also said it expects developing Asia’s growth this year to be slightly stronger than its December projections, as healthy domestic demand offsets the slowdown in China.
In spite of rising energy prices, inflation is also expected to moderate in Asia-Pacific from 3.3% in 2023 to 3.2% this year.
亚洲开发银行表示，尽管经济放缓，中国仍将是世界经济最大的增长引擎。
“中国显然在未来一段时间内仍然很重要。它们仍然占亚太地区GDP的近一半，”亚行首席经济学家艾伯特·帕克在该行亚洲发展展望报告的新闻发布会上表示。帕克表示：“尽管增长正在放缓，而且我们预计未来几年增长将继续放缓……但它可能是世界上所有经济体中对全球增长贡献最大的。”
亚行预测，2024年中国GDP年增长率为4.8%，低于政府“5%左右”的目标。 2023年中国经济增长5.2%，达到5%左右的官方目标。亚行数据估计，即使增长放缓，2024-2025年中国仍将占亚洲发展中国家增长的46%。根据亚行、世界银行和国际货币基金组织使用的购买力平价汇率计算，中国目前的GDP分别占全球和亚洲的18%和48%。
此外，预计发达经济体今年的增长将放缓，亚行预测美国 2023 年 GDP 增速将从去年的 2.5% 降至 1.9%，日本将从 2023 年的 1.9% 增长 0.6%。该银行在报告中还表示，预计亚洲发展中国家今年的增长将略强于 12 月份的预测，因为健康的内需抵消了中国经济放缓的影响。尽管能源价格不断上涨，但亚太地区的通胀率预计也将从 2023 年的 3.3% 降至今年的 3.2%。
