By Global Times
Published: Apr 17, 2024 08:13 PM
A view of the Lujiazui area in Shanghai Photo: VCG
A number of foreign banks and institutions have upgraded forecasts for China's GDP growth for 2024 after the economy expanded by an impressive 5.3 percent in the first quarter, well above market expectations.
These bullish outlooks offer a strong rebuttal to the "Peak China" rhetoric.
UBS on Wednesday upgraded its forecast to 4.9 percent from 4.6 percent.
UBS Chief China Economist and Head of Asia Economics Wang Tao said that China's better-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter and a strong export outlook led the investment bank to upgrade the forecast.
UBS also revised China's forecast for exports in 2024 from a 1.2 percent increase to 3.5 percent in dollar terms.
Development Bank of Singapore (DBS) raised its full-year growth forecast to 5 percent, up from the previous estimate of 4.5 percent, after the release of China's economic data on Tuesday.
DBS said that China's first-quarter economic growth exceeded market expectations, with exports showing resilience. Accelerated infrastructure and manufacturing investment offset the pressure from slowing real estate investment.
ANZ on Tuesday revised its China GDP forecast for 2024 to 4.9 percent as the country's GDP in the first quarter was higher than its previous forecast.
Major indicators showed that China's economy is steadily progressing and achieving a strong start to the year.
Retail sales grew 4.7 percent year-on-year to 12.03 trillion yuan ($1.66 trillion) in the first quarter, while industrial added-value was up 6.1 percent, and fixed-asset investment rose by 4.5 percent to 10 trillion yuan, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday.
China's total merchandise trade expanded 5 percent year-on-year in yuan terms in the first quarter, setting new records in both scale and the pace of growth.
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup recently released separate reports stating that China's economy is off to a good start in 2024 and the GDP growth target of "around 5 percent" set by the Chinese government can be achieved.
Goldman Sachs upgraded China's GDP growth for 2024 to 5 percent from 4.8 percent while Citigroup lifted its forecast to 5 percent from 4.6 percent previously.
"The international community is increasingly optimistic about China, and confidence in China's development is growing," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian told a press conference on Wednesday.
China's economic foundation is full of potential. China will continue to advance high-quality development and high-level opening-up, and work with countries around the world in driving global economic recovery and development, Lin said.
An Asian Development Outlook report from the Asian Development Bank estimated that China will account for 46 percent of growth in developing Asia in the 2024-2025 period and remain the largest growth engine for the world economy.
在第一季度中国经济增长5.3%，远高于市场预期后，全球多家海外银行和机构上调了对中国2024年GDP增长的预测，这些上调的预测有力地反驳了“中国顶峰论”。
瑞士联合银行（UBS）周三将其对中国2024年GDP增长的预测从4.6%上调至4.9%。瑞银首席中国经济学家兼亚洲经济主管王涛表示，中国第一季度经济增长超过预期，出口前景强劲，因此瑞银上调了预测。同时，瑞银还将中国2024年出口预测从1.2%上调至3.5%。
新加坡开发银行（DBS）周二公布中国经济数据后，将全年增长预测从此前预估的4.5%上调至5%。新加坡开发银行表示，中国第一季度经济增长超出市场预期，出口表现出强大的韧性，中国基础设施和制造业投资的提高抵消了房地产投资放缓带来的压力。
澳新银行（ANZ）也因中国第一季度GDP高于此前的预测，而在周二将2024年中国GDP预测上调至4.9%，
主要指标显示，中国经济稳步发展，今年开局强劲。
国家统计局周二公布的数据显示，第一季度零售额同比增长4.7%至12.03万亿元人民币（1.66万亿美元），工业增加值增长6.1%，固定资产投资增长4.5%至10万亿元人民币。
以人民币价格计算，中国一季度商品贸易总额同比增长5%，规模和增速均创历史新高。
高盛集团（Goldman Sachs）和花旗集团（Citigroup）近日分别发布报告称，中国经济在2024年开局良好，中国政府设定的GDP增长5%左右的目标有望实现。高盛将中国2024年的GDP增长率从4.8%上调至5%，而花旗集团（Citigroup）则将其预测从之前的4.6%上调至5%。
“国际社会对中国越来越乐观，对中国发展的信心也在增强，”中国外交部发言人林健周三在新闻发布会上说。中国的经济基础充满潜力。林毅夫表示，中国将继续推进高质量发展和高水平开放，与世界各国一道推动全球经济复苏和发展。
亚洲开发银行的《亚洲发展展望》报告估计，2024-2025年期间，中国将占亚洲发展中国家增长的46%，并仍然是世界经济的最大增长引擎。
